NICKEL MONITOR

LME vs China — since Aug 2025USD/t left · CNY/t right
LME cash $ LME 3-month $ SMM refined Indonesia $ SHFE futures ¥ SMM #1 spot ¥

What's moving

Ore — export benchmarks

USD / wet tonne, CIF China

Philippines Indonesia New Caledonia

New Caledonia 1.8% Philippines 1.8%

CIF & FOB by origin / grade — read the last column (per 1% Ni)

SMM intermediates (FOB) & payables

FOB, USD/mt Ni · 18 Jun vs 10 Aug

18 Jun 10 Aug

NPI, refined nickel, stainless & cobalt chain

Input costs

sulphur · crude · coal · freight

Sulphur — Kuwait Sulphur Price, USD/t FOB

Crude (daily) & coal (monthly)

WTI, $/bbl (left) Newcastle coal, $/t, monthly (right)

Market sentiment

SMM factors · news score

Fund positioning — futures & options

Fund net position vs price

Net position LME cash

Fund held long / short

Long Short

Outlook & price forecasts

LME — visible stock (daily, 12 months)

tonnes

One-way draw since February ~289 kt; recent plateau ~264 kt.

SHFE — weekly nickel inventory

tonnes

Total futures inventory Of which warrants

Inventories by source

LME is live (Westmetall). The other series are to wire: SHFE = public exchange data (weekly); the SMM indices (Pyro-Ore, Hydro-Ore, NPI Port Inventory) are proprietary — to extract from the "SMM Global Ni & SS Daily" report or an SMM subscription.

SLN — ferronickel & ore production (quarterly)

Ferronickel — production vs sales, kt-Ni

Production Sales

Ore — produced vs exported, kwmt

Produced Exported

Ore production by type — saprolite vs laterite

kwmt, whole territory

Monthly, thousand wet tonnes

Saprolite — pyro feed Laterite — HPAL feed

2026 year to date, cumulative

Saprolite Laterite

Estimated nickel revenue

Monthly gross revenue, USD m

SLN — ferronickel Prony — NHC LME cash, monthly avg

2026 year to date, cumulative

SLN Prony

Metallurgical plants — status

Monthly production by plant (DIMENC)

Contained nickel by plant, t-Ni/month (Jul 25 – Jun 26)

NHC — Prony Ferronickel — SLN

Cobalt — Prony, t Co/month (sole NC producer)

Ore exports (DIMENC)

Monthly total, kwmt (Jun 25 – Jun 26)

August 2026 — by destination

Exchange rate — USD / XPF

the franc is pegged: 119.33 XPF = 1 EUR

LME cash this year (USD/t)

LME cash Symbolic threshold

Three prices, base 100 at the first session of the year

LME converted to XPF LME in USD SHFE in CNY

USD / XPF — daily (ECB reference, 12 months)

LME cash converted (million XPF per tonne)

Energy — the first cost line

electricity & fuel

Transport — client direct MT long use MT short use LV business

Diesel Petrol

Regulated ladder the smelters sit outside of · Q3 2026

What the public record does say about their cost

Nickel news — last 12 months

partial New Caledonia focus

Curated timeline from market research (Westmetall/LME, SMM, Argus/ING, Eramet, NC press).